When it starts
Alta, Feb 16–18, 2026: the model's run on the day said 7.2" skiable over 3 days, best Wednesday at 4.1" (Nice day); the Atwater SNOTEL pillow gained 27" of depth. Model shy.
Model shy by 19.8". The usual direction: the 2025–26 backtest ran low on storm days.
Pack going in: 47" on Feb 15, 48" on Feb 16. The storm total counts from the first reading, so snow after 5pm the night before is in it.
| Day | Call | First chair | On hill | Skiable | Starts | Pillow before | Pillow after | Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Feb 16 | Stay home | 0.0" | 0.0" | 0.0" | — | 48" | 54" | +6" |
| Tue Feb 17 | Nice day | 2.1" | 1.0" | 3.1" | ~12am | 54" | 79" | +25" |
| Wed Feb 18 | Nice day | 0.1" | 4.0" | 4.1" | ~10am | 79" | 74" | -5" |
Model: the run on the day (Open-Meteo Previous Runs, best_match). PowHound does not keep superseded live forecasts, so this is not the number you saw the night before. It is usually closer.
Clocks, local time: first chair 5pm–8am, on hill 8am–5pm, skiable is both. Stay home under 2", Nice day 2–8", Full Send 8" or more.
Pillow: snow depth at the Atwater SNOTEL station, read once a day around midnight. A day's gain is the next midnight reading minus that day's, so it runs midnight to midnight, not 5pm to 5pm. Depth is not snowfall: new snow settles and blows around, so the pillow usually reads under what fell. Not the resort report.
Verdict: close is within 3" or 30%. Season numbers and method: llms.txt.