When it starts
Deer Valley, Jan 3–5, 2026: the model's run on the day said 5.5" skiable over 3 days, best Monday at 5.5" (Nice day); the Thaynes Canyon SNOTEL pillow gained 11" of depth. Model shy.
Model shy by 5.5". The usual direction: the 2025–26 backtest ran low on storm days.
Pack going in: 26" on Jan 2, 26" on Jan 3. The storm total counts from the first reading, so snow after 5pm the night before is in it.
| Day | Call | First chair | On hill | Skiable | Starts | Pillow before | Pillow after | Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Jan 3 | Stay home | 0.0" | 0.0" | 0.0" | — | 26" | 34" | +8" |
| Sun Jan 4 | Stay home | 0.1" | 0.0" | 0.1" | — | 34" | 40" | +6" |
| Mon Jan 5 | Nice day | 2.4" | 3.1" | 5.5" | ~2am | 40" | 37" | -3" |
Model: the run on the day (Open-Meteo Previous Runs, best_match). PowHound does not keep superseded live forecasts, so this is not the number you saw the night before. It is usually closer.
Clocks, local time: first chair 5pm–8am, on hill 8am–5pm, skiable is both. Stay home under 2", Nice day 2–8", Full Send 8" or more.
Pillow: snow depth at the Thaynes Canyon SNOTEL station, read once a day around midnight. A day's gain is the next midnight reading minus that day's, so it runs midnight to midnight, not 5pm to 5pm. Depth is not snowfall: new snow settles and blows around, so the pillow usually reads under what fell. Not the resort report.
Verdict: close is within 3" or 30%. Season numbers and method: llms.txt.