When it starts
Heavenly, Dec 23–26, 2025: the model's run on the day said 11.1" skiable over 4 days, best Thursday at 6.7" (Nice day); the Heavenly Valley SNOTEL pillow gained 22" of depth. Model shy.
Model shy by 10.9". The usual direction: the 2025–26 backtest ran low on storm days.
Pack going in: 9" on Dec 22, 7" on Dec 23. The storm total counts from the first reading, so snow after 5pm the night before is in it.
| Day | Call | First chair | On hill | Skiable | Starts | Pillow before | Pillow after | Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Dec 23 | Stay home | 0.0" | 0.0" | 0.0" | — | 7" | 23" | +16" |
| Wed Dec 24 | Stay home | 0.1" | 0.8" | 0.9" | ~12pm | 23" | 26" | +3" |
| Thu Dec 25 | Nice day | 2.9" | 3.8" | 6.7" | ~5pm Wednesday | 26" | 34" | +8" |
| Fri Dec 26 | Nice day | 2.5" | 1.0" | 3.4" | ~11pm Thursday | 34" | 31" | -3" |
Model: the run on the day (Open-Meteo Previous Runs, best_match). PowHound does not keep superseded live forecasts, so this is not the number you saw the night before. It is usually closer.
Clocks, local time: first chair 5pm–8am, on hill 8am–5pm, skiable is both. Stay home under 2", Nice day 2–8", Full Send 8" or more.
Pillow: snow depth at the Heavenly Valley SNOTEL station, read once a day around midnight. A day's gain is the next midnight reading minus that day's, so it runs midnight to midnight, not 5pm to 5pm. Depth is not snowfall: new snow settles and blows around, so the pillow usually reads under what fell. Not the resort report.
Verdict: close is within 3" or 30%. Season numbers and method: llms.txt.