When it starts
Heavenly, Feb 15–18, 2026: the model's run on the day said 9.6" skiable over 4 days, best Tuesday at 4.8" (Nice day); the Heavenly Valley SNOTEL pillow gained 33" of depth. Model shy.
Model shy by 23.4". The usual direction: the 2025–26 backtest ran low on storm days.
Pack going in: 24" on Feb 14, 24" on Feb 15. The storm total counts from the first reading, so snow after 5pm the night before is in it.
| Day | Call | First chair | On hill | Skiable | Starts | Pillow before | Pillow after | Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Feb 15 | Stay home | 0.0" | 0.0" | 0.0" | — | 24" | 30" | +6" |
| Mon Feb 16 | Stay home | 0.0" | 1.2" | 1.2" | ~3pm | 30" | 55" | +25" |
| Tue Feb 17 | Nice day | 1.0" | 3.9" | 4.8" | ~9am | 55" | 58" | +3" |
| Wed Feb 18 | Nice day | 3.4" | 0.2" | 3.6" | ~5pm Tuesday | 58" | 57" | -1" |
Model: the run on the day (Open-Meteo Previous Runs, best_match). PowHound does not keep superseded live forecasts, so this is not the number you saw the night before. It is usually closer.
Clocks, local time: first chair 5pm–8am, on hill 8am–5pm, skiable is both. Stay home under 2", Nice day 2–8", Full Send 8" or more.
Pillow: snow depth at the Heavenly Valley SNOTEL station, read once a day around midnight. A day's gain is the next midnight reading minus that day's, so it runs midnight to midnight, not 5pm to 5pm. Depth is not snowfall: new snow settles and blows around, so the pillow usually reads under what fell. Not the resort report.
Verdict: close is within 3" or 30%. Season numbers and method: llms.txt.