When it starts
Kirkwood, Oct 13–15, 2025: the model's run on the day said 5.2" skiable over 3 days, best Wednesday at 2.6" (Nice day); the Caples Lake SNOTEL pillow gained 1" of depth. Model heavy.
Model heavy by 4.2". New snow settles as it lands, so the pillow reads under what fell. Read heavy as soft.
Pack going in: 0" on Oct 12, 0" on Oct 13. The storm total counts from the first reading, so snow after 5pm the night before is in it.
| Day | Call | First chair | On hill | Skiable | Starts | Pillow before | Pillow after | Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Oct 13 | Stay home | 0.0" | 0.1" | 0.1" | — | 0" | 6" | +6" |
| Tue Oct 14 | Nice day | 1.0" | 1.4" | 2.4" | ~4am | 6" | 3" | -3" |
| Wed Oct 15 | Nice day | 2.6" | 0.1" | 2.6" | ~5pm Tuesday | 3" | 1" | -2" |
Model: the run on the day (Open-Meteo Previous Runs, best_match). PowHound does not keep superseded live forecasts, so this is not the number you saw the night before. It is usually closer.
Clocks, local time: first chair 5pm–8am, on hill 8am–5pm, skiable is both. Stay home under 2", Nice day 2–8", Full Send 8" or more.
Pillow: snow depth at the Caples Lake SNOTEL station, read once a day around midnight. A day's gain is the next midnight reading minus that day's, so it runs midnight to midnight, not 5pm to 5pm. Depth is not snowfall: new snow settles and blows around, so the pillow usually reads under what fell. Not the resort report.
Verdict: close is within 3" or 30%. Season numbers and method: llms.txt.