When it starts
Kirkwood, Feb 15–19, 2026: the model's run on the day said 26.6" skiable over 5 days, best Tuesday at 9.3" (Full Send); the Caples Lake SNOTEL pillow gained 44" of depth. Model shy.
Model shy by 17.4". The usual direction: the 2025–26 backtest ran low on storm days.
Pack going in: 36" on Feb 14, 35" on Feb 15. The storm total counts from the first reading, so snow after 5pm the night before is in it.
| Day | Call | First chair | On hill | Skiable | Starts | Pillow before | Pillow after | Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Feb 15 | Stay home | 0.0" | 0.0" | 0.0" | — | 35" | 49" | +14" |
| Mon Feb 16 | Nice day | 1.5" | 4.4" | 5.9" | ~3am | 49" | 79" | +30" |
| Tue Feb 17 | Full Send | 2.6" | 6.7" | 9.3" | ~5pm Monday | 79" | 84" | +5" |
| Wed Feb 18 | Nice day | 6.4" | 0.3" | 6.7" | ~5pm Tuesday | 84" | 86" | +2" |
| Thu Feb 19 | Nice day | 1.9" | 2.9" | 4.7" | ~7pm Wednesday | 86" | 80" | -6" |
Model: the run on the day (Open-Meteo Previous Runs, best_match). PowHound does not keep superseded live forecasts, so this is not the number you saw the night before. It is usually closer.
Clocks, local time: first chair 5pm–8am, on hill 8am–5pm, skiable is both. Stay home under 2", Nice day 2–8", Full Send 8" or more.
Pillow: snow depth at the Caples Lake SNOTEL station, read once a day around midnight. A day's gain is the next midnight reading minus that day's, so it runs midnight to midnight, not 5pm to 5pm. Depth is not snowfall: new snow settles and blows around, so the pillow usually reads under what fell. Not the resort report.
Verdict: close is within 3" or 30%. Season numbers and method: llms.txt.