When it starts
Northstar, Feb 15–19, 2026: the model's run on the day said 17.3" skiable over 5 days, best Tuesday at 8.9" (Full Send); the Independence Camp SNOTEL pillow gained 29" of depth. Model shy.
Model shy by 11.7". The usual direction: the 2025–26 backtest ran low on storm days.
Pack going in: 29" on Feb 14, 28" on Feb 15. The storm total counts from the first reading, so snow after 5pm the night before is in it.
| Day | Call | First chair | On hill | Skiable | Starts | Pillow before | Pillow after | Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Feb 15 | Stay home | 0.0" | 0.0" | 0.0" | — | 28" | 39" | +11" |
| Mon Feb 16 | Stay home | 0.0" | 1.6" | 1.6" | ~10am | 39" | 57" | +18" |
| Tue Feb 17 | Full Send | 3.1" | 5.8" | 8.9" | ~5pm Monday | 57" | 58" | +1" |
| Wed Feb 18 | Nice day | 2.5" | 0.2" | 2.7" | ~5pm Tuesday | 58" | 63" | +5" |
| Thu Feb 19 | Nice day | 1.2" | 2.9" | 4.1" | ~11pm Wednesday | 63" | 58" | -5" |
Model: the run on the day (Open-Meteo Previous Runs, best_match). PowHound does not keep superseded live forecasts, so this is not the number you saw the night before. It is usually closer.
Clocks, local time: first chair 5pm–8am, on hill 8am–5pm, skiable is both. Stay home under 2", Nice day 2–8", Full Send 8" or more.
Pillow: snow depth at the Independence Camp SNOTEL station, read once a day around midnight. A day's gain is the next midnight reading minus that day's, so it runs midnight to midnight, not 5pm to 5pm. Depth is not snowfall: new snow settles and blows around, so the pillow usually reads under what fell. Not the resort report.
Verdict: close is within 3" or 30%. Season numbers and method: llms.txt.