When it starts
Snowbird, Mar 3–5, 2026: the model's run on the day said 5.8" skiable over 3 days, best Tuesday at 3.7" (Nice day); the Snowbird SNOTEL pillow gained 18" of depth. Model shy.
Model shy by 12.2". The usual direction: the 2025–26 backtest ran low on storm days.
Pack going in: 75" on Mar 2, 75" on Mar 3. The storm total counts from the first reading, so snow after 5pm the night before is in it.
| Day | Call | First chair | On hill | Skiable | Starts | Pillow before | Pillow after | Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Mar 3 | Nice day | 3.4" | 0.2" | 3.7" | ~6pm Monday | 75" | 74" | -1" |
| Wed Mar 4 | Stay home | 0.0" | 0.0" | 0.0" | — | 74" | 85" | +11" |
| Thu Mar 5 | Nice day | 1.0" | 1.2" | 2.2" | ~12am | 85" | 93" | +8" |
Model: the run on the day (Open-Meteo Previous Runs, best_match). PowHound does not keep superseded live forecasts, so this is not the number you saw the night before. It is usually closer.
Clocks, local time: first chair 5pm–8am, on hill 8am–5pm, skiable is both. Stay home under 2", Nice day 2–8", Full Send 8" or more.
Pillow: snow depth at the Snowbird SNOTEL station, read once a day around midnight. A day's gain is the next midnight reading minus that day's, so it runs midnight to midnight, not 5pm to 5pm. Depth is not snowfall: new snow settles and blows around, so the pillow usually reads under what fell. Not the resort report.
Verdict: close is within 3" or 30%. Season numbers and method: llms.txt.