When it starts
Crystal Mountain, Jan 5–7, 2026: the model's run on the day said 7.8" skiable over 3 days, best Wednesday at 4.1" (Nice day); the Morse Lake SNOTEL pillow gained 13" of depth. Model shy.
Model shy by 5.2". The usual direction: the 2025–26 backtest ran low on storm days.
Pack going in: 44" on Jan 4, 46" on Jan 5. The storm total counts from the first reading, so snow after 5pm the night before is in it.
| Day | Call | First chair | On hill | Skiable | Starts | Pillow before | Pillow after | Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Jan 5 | Stay home | 0.5" | 0.0" | 0.5" | — | 46" | 60" | +14" |
| Tue Jan 6 | Nice day | 0.0" | 3.2" | 3.2" | ~11am | 60" | 58" | -2" |
| Wed Jan 7 | Nice day | 2.7" | 1.4" | 4.1" | ~5pm Tuesday | 58" | 57" | -1" |
Model: the run on the day (Open-Meteo Previous Runs, best_match). PowHound does not keep superseded live forecasts, so this is not the number you saw the night before. It is usually closer.
Clocks, local time: first chair 5pm–8am, on hill 8am–5pm, skiable is both. Stay home under 2", Nice day 2–8", Full Send 8" or more.
Pillow: snow depth at the Morse Lake SNOTEL station, read once a day around midnight. A day's gain is the next midnight reading minus that day's, so it runs midnight to midnight, not 5pm to 5pm. Depth is not snowfall: new snow settles and blows around, so the pillow usually reads under what fell. Not the resort report.
Verdict: close is within 3" or 30%. Season numbers and method: llms.txt.