When it starts
Crystal Mountain, Feb 20–23, 2026: the model's run on the day said 5.5" skiable over 4 days, best Monday at 4.1" (Nice day); the Morse Lake SNOTEL pillow gained 18" of depth. Model shy.
Model shy by 12.5". The usual direction: the 2025–26 backtest ran low on storm days.
Pack going in: 66" on Feb 19, 66" on Feb 20. The storm total counts from the first reading, so snow after 5pm the night before is in it.
| Day | Call | First chair | On hill | Skiable | Starts | Pillow before | Pillow after | Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri Feb 20 | Stay home | 0.0" | 0.0" | 0.0" | — | 66" | 69" | +3" |
| Sat Feb 21 | Stay home | 0.1" | 0.4" | 0.4" | — | 69" | 76" | +7" |
| Sun Feb 22 | Stay home | 0.4" | 0.7" | 1.0" | ~3pm | 76" | 82" | +6" |
| Mon Feb 23 | Nice day | 3.5" | 0.6" | 4.1" | ~8pm Sunday | 82" | 84" | +2" |
Model: the run on the day (Open-Meteo Previous Runs, best_match). PowHound does not keep superseded live forecasts, so this is not the number you saw the night before. It is usually closer.
Clocks, local time: first chair 5pm–8am, on hill 8am–5pm, skiable is both. Stay home under 2", Nice day 2–8", Full Send 8" or more.
Pillow: snow depth at the Morse Lake SNOTEL station, read once a day around midnight. A day's gain is the next midnight reading minus that day's, so it runs midnight to midnight, not 5pm to 5pm. Depth is not snowfall: new snow settles and blows around, so the pillow usually reads under what fell. Not the resort report.
Verdict: close is within 3" or 30%. Season numbers and method: llms.txt.