When it starts
Northstar, Dec 23–26, 2025: the model's run on the day said 16.4" skiable over 4 days, best Thursday at 6.4" (Nice day); the Independence Camp SNOTEL pillow gained 27" of depth. Model shy.
Model shy by 10.6". The usual direction: the 2025–26 backtest ran low on storm days.
Pack going in: 1" on Dec 22, 0" on Dec 23. The storm total counts from the first reading, so snow after 5pm the night before is in it.
| Day | Call | First chair | On hill | Skiable | Starts | Pillow before | Pillow after | Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Dec 23 | Stay home | 0.0" | 0.0" | 0.0" | — | 0" | 12" | +12" |
| Wed Dec 24 | Nice day | 0.1" | 3.5" | 3.6" | ~8am | 12" | 29" | +17" |
| Thu Dec 25 | Nice day | 3.1" | 3.4" | 6.4" | ~5pm Wednesday | 29" | 32" | +3" |
| Fri Dec 26 | Nice day | 6.1" | 0.3" | 6.4" | ~5pm Thursday | 32" | 28" | -4" |
Model: the run on the day (Open-Meteo Previous Runs, best_match). PowHound does not keep superseded live forecasts, so this is not the number you saw the night before. It is usually closer.
Clocks, local time: first chair 5pm–8am, on hill 8am–5pm, skiable is both. Stay home under 2", Nice day 2–8", Full Send 8" or more.
Pillow: snow depth at the Independence Camp SNOTEL station, read once a day around midnight. A day's gain is the next midnight reading minus that day's, so it runs midnight to midnight, not 5pm to 5pm. Depth is not snowfall: new snow settles and blows around, so the pillow usually reads under what fell. Not the resort report.
Verdict: close is within 3" or 30%. Season numbers and method: llms.txt.