When it starts
Northstar, Jan 2–4, 2026: the model's run on the day said 6.6" skiable over 3 days, best Sunday at 3.4" (Nice day); the Independence Camp SNOTEL pillow gained 16" of depth. Model shy.
Model shy by 9.4". The usual direction: the 2025–26 backtest ran low on storm days.
Pack going in: 22" on Jan 1, 21" on Jan 2. The storm total counts from the first reading, so snow after 5pm the night before is in it.
| Day | Call | First chair | On hill | Skiable | Starts | Pillow before | Pillow after | Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri Jan 2 | Stay home | 0.0" | 0.0" | 0.0" | — | 21" | 26" | +5" |
| Sat Jan 3 | Nice day | 0.8" | 2.4" | 3.2" | ~7am | 26" | 41" | +15" |
| Sun Jan 4 | Nice day | 2.1" | 1.3" | 3.4" | ~7pm Saturday | 41" | 38" | -3" |
Model: the run on the day (Open-Meteo Previous Runs, best_match). PowHound does not keep superseded live forecasts, so this is not the number you saw the night before. It is usually closer.
Clocks, local time: first chair 5pm–8am, on hill 8am–5pm, skiable is both. Stay home under 2", Nice day 2–8", Full Send 8" or more.
Pillow: snow depth at the Independence Camp SNOTEL station, read once a day around midnight. A day's gain is the next midnight reading minus that day's, so it runs midnight to midnight, not 5pm to 5pm. Depth is not snowfall: new snow settles and blows around, so the pillow usually reads under what fell. Not the resort report.
Verdict: close is within 3" or 30%. Season numbers and method: llms.txt.